In the health care reform court battles, the score is now:
- ObamaCare 2
- U.S. Constitution 1
At least that is the way the opponents of ObamaCare have framed it. The ruling by a Virginia federal judge, which strikes down a key provision of the health care law, came as no real surprise. He was a George W. Bush appointee and he had telegraphed his leanings when he originally ruled against the government’s motion to dismiss the case.
More court battles are on the way which could be decided either way, but it doesn’t really matter what the final score is. This matter is most certain to go into overtime with the outcome likely to be decided by the swing vote justice, Anthony Kennedy. Right now, the odds are fairly even as to which way the decision will go, but both sides are confident that their position will prevail.

How Do We Keep Score if We Don’t Know the Rules?
So, where does that leave the rest of us, you know, “we the people”, who are watching this political game being played out from the stands? Health care reform proponents would have us believe that if the courts shoot down the individual mandate it will be disastrous for the health care system, while opponents insist that our individual rights will be jeopardized if they don’t. It’s like watching a political football game where each side plays by their own set of rules and we need the referees (the courts) to tell us who is winning.
The Supreme Court will need to decide if the lower court’s ruling, that the individual mandate is unconstitutional, will stand, but it could take months or even years before the case gets there. In the meantime, assuming there are only two possible outcomes, we are left to ponder the consequences of both on our lives.
Game Ending Scenarios
One scenario is that the Supremes uphold the lower court’s ruling and the individual mandate is to be stricken from the law. While this would be considered a victory for individual rights and opponents of government overreaching, it could wreak havoc on the health care system if the rest of the law is allowed to be implemented.
The individual mandate was to ensure that the rest of the law’s provisions – guaranteed issue of policies, premium rate restrictions on people with pre-existing conditions, subsidization of coverage for the poor, caps on medical costs – would be funded through the requirement that all Americans must health insurance. Without that requirement, the funds would not be available making it nearly impossible to achieve the law’s objective of lowering insurance and medical costs.
The other outcome is that the lower court’s ruling is overturned and the health care law is ruled constitutional allowing it to move forward in its implementation. That certainly won’t be the end of the game as opponents have several other plays in their playbook. States are already lining up with their opt-out arguments and the new Republican-led House of Representatives will begin to chip away at the law through de-funding efforts.
It won’t be until after the 2012 election cycle when we might see any significant change in direction on health care reform. In the meantime, get your chips and guacamole out because it’s going to be a long and interesting game.
photo credit: Nevada Tumbleweed

Over the last decade, a major shift has occurred that has consumers more engaged in managing their own health care costs. The advent of Health Savings Accounts (HSA) coupled with High Deductible Health Insurance Plans (HDHP), an increasingly popular health insurance plan, has created a wave of consumer price consciousness in the realm of health care and medical services. The notion of “price shopping” medical services, once thought impractical or even impossible, is fast becoming the norm for millions of Americans who finally understand that they have some “skin in the game.”